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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.

Finding Trading Edges: Where to Get High R:R trades and Profit Potential of Them.
TL;DR - I will try and flip an account from $50 or less to $1,000 over 2019. I will post all my account details so my strategy can be seen/copied. I will do this using only three or four trading setups. All of which are simple enough to learn. I will start trading on 10th January.
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As I see it there are two mains ways to understand how to make money in the markets. The first is to know what the biggest winners in the markets are doing and duplicating what they do. This is hard. Most of the biggest players will not publicly tell people what they are doing. You need to be able to kinda slide in with them and see if you can pick up some info. Not suitable for most people, takes a lot of networking and even then you have to be able to make the correct inferences.
Another way is to know the most common trades of losing traders and then be on the other side of their common mistakes. This is usually far easier, usually everyone knows the mind of a losing trader. I learned about what losing traders do every day by being one of them for many years. I noticed I had an some sort of affinity for buying at the very top of moves and selling at the very bottom. This sucked, however, is was obvious there was winning trades on the other side of what I was doing and the adjustments to be a good trader were small (albeit, tricky).
Thus began the study for entries and maximum risk:reward. See, there have been times I have bought aiming for a 10 pip scalps and hit 100 pips stops loss. Hell, there have been times I was going for 5 pips and hit 100 stop out. This can seem discouraging, but it does mean there must be 1:10 risk:reward pay-off on the other side of these mistakes, and they were mistakes.
If you repeatedly enter and exit at the wrong times, you are making mistakes and probably the same ones over and over again. The market is tricking you! There are specific ways in which price moves that compel people to make these mistakes (I won’t go into this in this post, because it takes too long and this is going to be a long post anyway, but a lot of this is FOMO).
Making mistakes is okay. In fact, as I see it, making mistakes is an essential part of becoming an expert. Making a mistake enough times to understand intrinsically why it is a mistake and then make the required adjustments. Understanding at a deep level why you trade the way you do and why others make the mistakes they do, is an important part of becoming an expert in your chosen area of focus.
I could talk more on these concepts, but to keep the length of the post down, I will crack on to actual examples of trades I look for. Here are my three main criteria. I am looking for tops/bottoms of moves (edge entries). I am looking for 1:3 RR or more potential pay-offs. My strategy assumes that retail trades will lose most of the time. This seems a fair enough assumption. Without meaning to sound too crass about it, smart money will beat dumb money most of the time if the game is base on money. They just will.
So to summarize, I am looking for the points newbies get trapped in bad positions entering into moves too late. From these areas, I am looking for high RR entries.
Setup Examples.
I call this one the “Lightning Bolt correction”, but it is most commonly referred to as a “two leg correction”. I call it a “Lightning Bolt correction” because it looks a bit like one, and it zaps you. If you get it wrong.

https://preview.redd.it/t4whwijse2721.png?width=1326&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9050529c6e2472a3ff9f8e7137bd4a3ee5554cc
Once I see price making the first sell-off move and then begin to rally towards the highs again, I am waiting for a washout spike low. The common trades mistakes I am trading against here is them being too eager to buy into the trend too early and for the to get stopped out/reverse position when it looks like it is making another bearish breakout. Right at that point they panic … literally one candle under there is where I want to be getting in. I want to be buying their stop loss, essentially. “Oh, you don’t want that ...okay, I will have that!”
I need a precise entry. I want to use tiny stops (for big RR) so I need to be cute with entries. For this, I need entry rules. Not just arbitrarily buying the spike out. There are a few moving parts to this that are outside the scope of this post but one of my mains ways is using a fibs extension and looking for reversals just after the 1.61% level. How to draw the fibs is something else that is outside the scope of this but for one simple rule, they can be drawn on the failed new high leg.

https://preview.redd.it/2cd682kve2721.png?width=536&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4d081c9faff49d0976f9ffab260aaed2b570309
I am looking for a few specific things for a prime setup. Firstly, I am looking for the false hope candles, the ones that look like they will reverse the market and let those buying too early get out break-even or even at profit. In this case, you can see the hammer and engulfing candle off the 127 level, then it spikes low in that “stop-hunt” sort of style.
Secondly I want to see it trading just past my entry level (161 ext). This rule has come from nothing other than sheer volume. The amount of times I’ve been stopped out by 1 pip by that little sly final low has gave birth to this rule. I am looking for the market to trade under support in a manner that looks like a new strong breakout. When I see this, I am looking to get in with tiny stops, right under the lows. I will also be using smaller charts at this time and looking for reversal clusters of candles. Things like dojis, inverted hammers etc. These are great for sticking stops under.
Important note, when the lightning bolt correction fails to be a good entry, I expect to see another two legs down. I may look to sell into this area sometimes, and also be looking for buying on another couple legs down. It is important to note, though, when this does not work out, I expect there to be continued momentum that is enough to stop out and reasonable stop level for my entry. Which is why I want to cut quick. If a 10 pips stop will hit, usually a 30 pips stop will too. Bin it and look for the next opportunity at better RR.

https://preview.redd.it/mhkgy35ze2721.png?width=1155&format=png&auto=webp&s=a18278b85b10278603e5c9c80eb98df3e6878232
Another setup I am watching for is harmonic patterns, and I am using these as a multi-purpose indicator. When I see potentially harmonic patterns forming, I am using their completion level as take profits, I do not want to try and run though reversal patterns I can see forming hours ahead of time. I also use them for entering (similar rules of looking for specific entry criteria for small stops). Finally, I use them as a continuation pattern. If the harmonic pattern runs past the area it may have reversed from, there is a high probability that the market will continue to trend and very basic trend following strategies work well. I learned this from being too stubborn sticking with what I thought were harmonic reversals only to be ran over by a trend (seriously, everything I know I know from how it used to make me lose).

https://preview.redd.it/1ytz2431f2721.png?width=1322&format=png&auto=webp&s=983a7f2a91f9195004ad8a2aa2bb9d4d6f128937
A method of spotting these sorts of M/W harmonics is they tend to form after a second spike out leg never formed. When this happens, it gives me a really good idea of where my profit targets should be and where my next big breakout level is. It is worth noting, larger harmonics using have small harmonics inside them (on lower time-frames) and this can be used for dialling in optimum entries. I also use harmonics far more extensively in ranging markets. Where they tend to have higher win rates.
Next setup is the good old fashioned double bottoms/double top/one tick trap sort of setup. This comes in when the market is highly over extended. It has a small sell-off and rallies back to the highs before having a much larger sell-off. This is a more risky trade in that it sells into what looks like trending momentum and can be stopped out more. However, it also pays a high RR when it works, allowing for it to be ran at reduced risk and still be highly profitable when it comes through.

https://preview.redd.it/1bx83776f2721.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c76c3085598ae70f4142d26c46c8d6e9b1c2881
From these sorts of moves, I am always looking for a follow up buy if it forms a lightning bolt sort of setup.
All of these setups always offer 1:3 or better RR. If they do not, you are doing it wrong (and it will be your stop placement that is wrong). This is not to say the target is always 1:3+, sometimes it is best to lock in profits with training stops. It just means that every time you enter, you can potentially have a trade that runs for many times more than you risked. 1:10 RR can be hit in these sorts of setups sometimes. Paying you 20% for 2% risked.
I want to really stress here that what I am doing is trading against small traders mistakes. I am not trying to “beat the market maker”. I am not trying to reverse engineer J.P Morgan’s black boxes. I do not think I am smart enough to gain a worthwhile edge over these traders. They have more money, they have more data, they have better softwares … they are stronger. Me trying to “beat the market maker” is like me trying to beat up Mike Tyson. I might be able to kick him in the balls and feel smug for a few seconds. However, when he gets up, he is still Tyson and I am still me. I am still going to be pummeled.
I’ve seen some people that were fairly bright people going into training courses and coming out dumb as shit. Thinking they somehow are now going to dominate Goldman Sachs because they learned a chart pattern. Get a grip. For real, get a fucking grip. These buzz phrases are marketeering. Realististically, if you want to win in the markets, you need to have an edge over somebody.
I don’t have edges on the banks. If I could find one, they’d take it away from me. Edges work on inefficiencies in what others do that you can spot and they can not. I do not expect to out-think a banks analysis team. I know for damn sure I can out-think a version of me from 5 years ago … and I know there are enough of them in the markets. I look to trade against them. I just look to protect myself from the larger players so they can only hurt me in limited ways. Rather than letting them corner me and beat me to a pulp (in the form of me watching $1,000 drop off my equity because I moved a stop or something), I just let them kick me in the butt as I run away. It hurts a little, but I will be over it soon.
I believe using these principles, these three simple enough edge entry setups, selectiveness (remembering you are trading against the areas people make mistakes, wait for they areas) and measured aggression a person can make impressive compounded gains over a year. I will attempt to demonstrate this by taking an account of under $100 to over $1,000 in a year. I will use max 10% on risk on a position, the risk will scale down as the account size increases. In most cases, 5% risk per trade will be used, so I will be going for 10-20% or so profits. I will be looking only for prime opportunities, so few trades but hard hitting ones when I take them.
I will start trading around the 10th January. Set remind me if you want to follow along. I will also post my investor login details, so you can see the trades in my account in real time. Letting you see when I place my orders and how I manage running positions.
I also think these same principles can be tweaked in such a way it is possible to flip $50 or so into $1,000 in under a month. I’ve done $10 to $1,000 in three days before. This is far more complex in trade management, though. Making it hard to explain/understand and un-viable for many people to copy (it hedges, does not comply with FIFO, needs 1:500 leverage and also needs spreads under half a pip on EURUSD - not everyone can access all they things). I see all too often people act as if this can’t be done and everyone saying it is lying to sell you something. I do not sell signals. I do not sell training. I have no dog in this fight, I am just saying it can be done. There are people who do it. If you dismiss it as impossible; you will never be one of them.
If I try this 10 times with $50, I probably am more likely to make $1,000 ($500 profit) in a couple months than standard ideas would double $500 - I think I have better RR, even though I may go bust 5 or more times. I may also try to demonstrate this, but it is kinda just show-boating, quite honestly. When it works, it looks cool. When it does not, I can go bust in a single day (see example https://www.fxblue.com/users/redditmicroflip).
So I may or may not try and demonstrate this. All this is, is just taking good basic concepts and applying accelerated risk tactics to them and hitting a winning streak (of far less trades than you may think). Once you have good entries and RR optimization in place - there really is no reason why you can not scale these up to do what may people call impossible (without even trying it).
I know there are a lot of people who do not think these things are possible and tend to just troll whenever people talk about these things. There used to be a time when I’d try to explain why I thought the way I did … before I noticed they only cared about telling me why they were right and discussion was pointless. Therefore, when it comes to replies, I will reply to all comments that ask me a question regarding why I think this can be done, or why I done something that I done. If you are commenting just to tell me all the reasons you think I am wrong and you are right, I will probably not reply. I may well consider your points if they are good ones. I just do not entering into discussions with people who already know everything; it serves no purpose.

Edit: Addition.

I want to talk a bit more about using higher percentage of risk than usual. Firstly, let me say that there are good reasons for risk caps that people often cite as “musts”. There are reasons why 2% is considered optimum for a lot of strategies and there are reasons drawing down too much is a really bad thing.
Please do not be ignorant of this. Please do not assume I am, either. In previous work I done, I was selecting trading strategies that could be used for investment. When doing this, my only concern was drawdown metrics. These are essential for professional money management and they are also essential for personal long-term success in trading.
So please do not think I have not thought of these sorts of things Many of the reasons people say these things can’t work are basic 101 stuff anyone even remotely committed to learning about trading learns in their first 6 months. Trust me, I have thought about these concepts. I just never stopped thinking when I found out what public consensus was.
While these 101 rules make a lot of sense, it does not take away from the fact there are other betting strategies, and if you can know the approximate win rate and pay-off of trades, you can have other ways of deriving optimal bet sizes (risk per trade). Using Kelly Criterion, for example, if the pay-off is 1:3 and there is a 75% chance of winning, the optimal bet size is 62.5%. It would be a viable (high risk) strategy to have extremely filtered conditions that looked for just one perfect set up a month, makingover 150% if it was successful.
Let’s do some math on if you can pull that off three months in a row (using 150% gain, for easy math). Start $100. Month two starts $250. Month three $625. Month three ends $1,562. You have won three trades. Can you win three trades in a row under these conditions? I don’t know … but don’t assume no-one can.
This is extremely high risk, let’s scale it down to meet somewhere in the middle of the extremes. Let’s look at 10%. Same thing, 10% risk looking for ideal opportunities. Maybe trading once every week or so. 30% pay-off is you win. Let’s be realistic here, a lot of strategies can drawdown 10% using low risk without actually having had that good a chance to generate 30% gains in the trades it took to do so. It could be argued that trading seldomly but taking 5* the risk your “supposed” to take can be more risk efficient than many strategies people are using.
I am not saying that you should be doing these things with tens of thousands of dollars. I am not saying you should do these things as long term strategies. What I am saying is do not dismiss things out of hand just because they buck the “common knowns”. There are ways you can use more aggressive trading tactics to turn small sums of money into they $1,000s of dollars accounts that you exercise they stringent money management tactics on.
With all the above being said, you do have to actually understand to what extent you have an edge doing what you are doing. To do this, you should be using standard sorts of risks. Get the basics in place, just do not think you have to always be basic. Once you have good basics in place and actually make a bit of money, you can section off profits for higher risk versions of strategies. The basic concepts of money management are golden. For longevity and large funds; learned them and use them! Just don’t forget to think for yourself once you have done that.

Update -

Okay, I have thought this through a bit more and decided I don't want to post my live account investor login, because it has my full name and I do not know who any of you are. Instead, for copying/observing, I will give demo account login (since I can choose any name for a demo).
I will also copy onto a live account and have that tracked via Myfxbook.
I will do two versions. One will be FIFO compliant. It will trade only single trade positions. The other will not be FIFO compliant, it will open trades in batches. I will link up live account in a week or so. For now, if anyone wants to do BETA testing with the copy trader, you can do so with the following details (this is the non-FIFO compliant version).

Account tracking/copying details.

Low-Medium risk.
IC Markets MT4
Account number: 10307003
Investor PW: lGdMaRe6
Server: Demo:01
(Not FIFO compliant)

Valid and Invalid Complaints.
There are a few things that can pop up in copy trading. I am not a n00b when it comes to this, so I can somewhat forecast what these will be. I can kinda predict what sort of comments there may be. Some of these are valid points that if you raise I should (and will) reply to. Some are things outside of the scope of things I can influence, and as such, there is no point in me replying to. I will just cover them all here the one time.

Valid complains are if I do something dumb or dramatically outside of the strategy I have laid out here. won't do these, if I do, you can pitchfork ----E

Examples;

“Oi, idiot! You opened a trade randomly on a news spike. I got slipped 20 pips and it was a shit entry”.
Perfectly valid complaint.

“Why did you open a trade during swaps hours when the spread was 30 pips?”
Also valid.

“You left huge trades open running into the weekend and now I have serious gap paranoia!”
Definitely valid.

These are examples of me doing dumb stuff. If I do dumb stuff, it is fair enough people say things amounting to “Yo, that was dumb stuff”.

Invalid Complains;

“You bought EURUSD when it was clearly a sell!!!!”
Okay … you sell. No-one is asking you to copy my trades. I am not trading your strategy. Different positions make a market.

“You opened a position too big and I lost X%”.
No. Na uh. You copied a position too big. If you are using a trade copier, you can set maximum risk. If you neglect to do this, you are taking 100% risk. You have no valid compliant for losing. The act of copying and setting the risk settings is you selecting your risk. I am not responsible for your risk. I accept absolutely no liability for any losses.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“You lost X trades in a row at X% so I lost too much”.
Nope. You copied. See above. Anything relating to losing too much in trades (placed in liquid/standard market conditions) is entirely you. I can lose my money. Only you can set it up so you can lose yours. I do not have access to your account. Only mine.
*Suggested fix. Refer to risk control in copy trading software

“Price keeps trading close to the pending limit orders but not filling. Your account shows profits, but mine is not getting them”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
* Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Buy limit orders will need to move up a little. Sell limit orders should not need adjusted.

“I got stopped out right before the market turned, I have a loss but your account shows a profit”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Stop losses on sell orders will need to move up a bit. Stops on buy orders will be fine.

“Your trade got stopped out right before the market turned, if it was one more pip in the stop, it would have been a winner!!!”
Yeah. This happens. This is where the “risk” part of “risk:reward” comes in.

“Price traded close to take profit, yours filled but mines never”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
(Side note, this should not be an issue since when my trade closes, it should ping your account to close, too. You might get a couple less pips).
*** Suggested fix. Compare the spread on your broker with the spread on mine. Adjust your orders accordingly. Take profits on buys will need to move up a bit. Sell take profits will be fine.

“My brokers spread jumped to 20 during the New York session so the open trade made a bigger loss than it should”.
Your broker might just suck if this happens. This is brokerage. I have no control over this. My trades are placed to profit from my brokerage conditions. I do not know, so can not account for yours. Also, if accounting for random spread spikes like this was something I had to do, this strategy would not be a thing. It only works with fair brokerage conditions.
*Suggested fix. Do a bit of Googling and find out if you have a horrific broker. If so, fix that! A good search phrase is; “(Broker name) FPA reviews”.

“Price hit the stop loss but was going really fast and my stop got slipped X pips”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. I use a strategy that aims for precision, and that means a pip here and there differences in brokerage spreads can make a difference. I am trading to profit from my trading conditions. I do not know, so can not account for, yours.
If my trade also got slipped on the stop, I was slipped using ECN conditions with excellent execution; sometimes slips just happen. I am doing the most I can to prevent them, but it is a fact of liquidity that sometimes we get slipped (slippage can also work in our favor, paying us more than the take profit would have been).

“Orders you placed failed to execute on my account because they were too large”.
This is brokerage. I have no control over this. Margin requirements vary. I have 1:500 leverage available. I will not always be using it, but I can. If you can’t, this will make a difference.

“Your account is making profits trading things my broker does not have”
I have a full range of assets to trade with the broker I use. Included Forex, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies. I may or may not use the extent of these options. I can not account for your brokerage conditions.

I think I have covered most of the common ones here. There are some general rules of thumb, though. Basically, if I do something that is dumb and would have a high probability of losing on any broker traded on, this is a valid complain.

Anything that pertains to risk taken in standard trading conditions is under your control.

Also, anything at all that pertains to brokerage variance there is nothing I can do, other than fully brief you on what to expect up-front. Since I am taking the time to do this, I won’t be a punchbag for anything that happens later pertaining to this.

I am not using an elitist broker. You don’t need $50,000 to open an account, it is only $200. It is accessible to most people - brokerage conditions akin to what I am using are absolutely available to anyone in the UK/Europe/Asia (North America, I am not so up on, so can’t say). With the broker I use, and with others. If you do not take the time to make sure you are trading with a good broker, there is nothing I can do about how that affects your trades.

I am using an A book broker, if you are using B book; it will almost certainly be worse results. You have bad costs. You are essentially buying from reseller and paying a mark-up. (A/B book AKA ECN/Market maker; learn about this here). My EURUSD spread will typically be 0.02 pips or so, if yours is 1 pip, this is a huge difference.
These are typical spreads I am working on.

https://preview.redd.it/yc2c4jfpab721.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=c377686b2485e13171318c9861f42faf325437e1


Check the full range of spreads on Forex, commodities, indices and crypto.

Please understand I want nothing from you if you benefit from this, but I am also due you nothing if you lose. My only term of offering this is that people do not moan at me if they lose money.

I have been fully upfront saying this is geared towards higher risk. I have provided information and tools for you to take control over this. If I do lose people’s money and I know that, I honestly will feel a bit sad about it. However, if you complain about it, all I will say is “I told you that might happen”, because, I am telling you that might happen.

Make clear headed assessments of how much money you can afford to risk, and use these when making your decisions. They are yours to make, and not my responsibility.

Update.

Crazy Kelly Compounding: $100 - $11,000 in 6 Trades.

$100 to $11,000 in 6 trades? Is it a scam? Is it a gamble? … No, it’s maths.

Common sense risk disclaimer: Don’t be a dick! Don’t risk money you can’t afford to lose. Do not risk money doing these things until you can show a regular profit on low risk.
Let’s talk about Crazy Kelly Compounding (CKC). Kelly criterion is a method for selecting optimal bet sizes if the odds and win rate are known (in other words, once you have worked out how to create and assess your edge). You can Google to learn about it in detail. The formula for Kelly criterion is;
((odds-1) * (percentage estimate)) - (1-percent estimate) / (odds-1) X 100
Now let’s say you can filter down a strategy to have a 80% win rate. It trades very rarely, but it had a very high success rate when it does. Let’s say you get 1:2 RR on that trade. Kelly would give you an optimum bet size of about 60% here. So if you win, you win 120%. Losing three trades in a row will bust you. You can still recover from anything less than that, fairly easily with a couple winning trades.
This is where CKC comes in. What if you could string some of these wins together, compounding the gains (so you were risking 60% each time)? What if you could pull off 6 trades in a row doing this?
Here is the math;

https://preview.redd.it/u3u6teqd7c721.png?width=606&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b958747b37b68ec2a769a8368b5cbebfe0e97ff
This shows years, substitute years for trades. 6 trades returns $11,338! This can be done. The question really is if you are able to dial in good enough entries, filter out enough sub-par trades and have the guts to pull the trigger when the time is right. Obviously you need to be willing to take the hit, obviously that hit gets bigger each time you go for it, but the reward to risk ratio is pretty decent if you can afford to lose the money.
We could maybe set something up to do this on cent brokers. So people can do it literally risking a couple dollars. I’d have to check to see if there was suitable spreads etc offered on them, though. They can be kinda icky.
Now listen, I am serious … don’t be a dick. Don’t rush out next week trying to retire by the weekend. What I am showing you is the EXTRA rewards that come with being able to produce good solid results and being able to section off some money for high risk “all or nothing” attempts; using your proven strategies.
I am not saying anyone can open 6 trades and make $11,000 … that is rather improbable. What I am saying is once you can get the strategy side right, and you can know your numbers; then you can use the numbers to see where the limits actually are, how fast your strategy can really go.
This CKC concept is not intended to inspire you to be reckless in trading, it is intended to inspire you to put focus on learning the core skills I am telling you that are behind being able to do this.
submitted by inweedwetrust to Forex [link] [comments]

Just thoughts after 3 years of Forex

You have a chart in front of you, a buy and sell button respectively, this basically gives you 50% of probability that if you open a buy or sell at any time your action will end up making money after sometime. "Sometime" adds new variables to the game and makes it more complicated: is knowing the direction for sometime, the market needs to move to increase profit or increase loss. You then go into the volatility reports for lets say EURUSD, and you see that during London session and New York session, it's the time where price statistically moves more, so there is where you want to be if you want to day trade (open and close trades in the same day), this can be also noticed if you zoom out for example M5 of almost any pairs, volume will be bigger in this two sessions.
Ok so you have statistics of at what times it may move big, you also know that it may not move or it may range the whole day, but definitely there is going to be big moves. If you analyse the past, with only for example a 30 MA, you will see the 50/50. What else do you need? To be in most of the times you are humanly able following the trend, if price is averaging over any average you want and see useful to add, why would you bet that is not going to average oveunder it for some more time? Add a 1000 MA, what if you waited for each cross and traded it trend following? Here then comes a "must": money management = risk = stay in the game for long = you can lose multiple times and long term it's hard that you even lose 10% of your account. Start with the minimum risk, demo in 0.01. Why? If you can consistently win with 0.01 it's just a matter of optimizing the statistics your demo trading over time has thrown, money will come, lots of it, the amount your confidence as a trader can bear and ultimately because trading is so big and involves almost all of the aspects of your life and personality, your confidence as a human being can bear. But this is skipping to psychology.
So, volatility, an average of some x periods to get the trend (not of the market but of the x periods in relation to the market and time, x is important, x can't be 2000 in M5), money management and time to play. What else? When will you close the trades? There are multiple ways each one with pros and cons, price crossing the average (too slow sometimes), price hitting fibos (gotta have a method for plotting fibos the same time each time, check the "Do it yourself" section, 61.8 a.k.a 0.618 and 61.8, god made numbers), being this last one the one I like. Price plays with these levels, nothing magical about it, is just "nature", a forgotten and violated term these days IMHO. There it is, when to open with probability, when to close methodically, how to play your money so you last as long as you don't fail too much repeatedly. This results after studying Ralph Elliot's, W Gann's, Wykcoff's, Pesavento's, Gartley's, Carney's and some others WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET. They all found structure in price actions over time, they all understood natural patterns that occur, they all sat in front of some charts, used or created tools for handling those charts, in the end everything is so simple and easy that our minds, past, maybe present, the t.v, Instagram won't lets us succeed. Why? Your mind is your biggest enemy of what you want to do in life. How? Your past in someway defines you, defines what you are looking for in life.

Psychology, establishment and relativity.

Mark Douglas introduced me (in his videos) to a new way of thinking towards trading. He speaks about beliefs, how they drives us in each decision we make each day from as simple as making coffee, having a bath,
dressing nice or dressing in the first place. Beliefs are what makes your past define you today and tomorrow if you keep believing them. A wrong belief of yourself, a wrong belief of the world outside your eyes,
a wrong belief of the market (you keep trusting other people about the market, in the end after loosing you trust no one), this leads to what lot's of gurus outside the financial world, will say: trust in
yourself. Forex gurus tell you to trust them, pay them so they'll unveil the secrets. No money can change your wrong mindset, that feeling in your chest each time you think about possibilities with Forex (euphoria, dangerous as f not only in forex), that belief that some magical indicator will come, some hidden code of some pro advanced indi if you are more realist, some guy with the answer. You are very alone in this world my friend, money will tear countries apart, cities apart, families apart. People will sell their face for some money, their name, in the end corrupt politicians that don't get caught will enjoy their feasts everyday, with their innocent childs, who see their daddy as their hero, this is not a fair world, what's fair in the first place? A human creation so we can live together in peace, but that's not reality we all know. We are evoluted chimps, we still feel what the cheetah feel's in front of his prey, we share 90% of DNA with most of mammals, as intelligent as we like to think we are, we can't delete our nature, our hunger, our fear, our needs, our instinct (the one rushes adrenaline when you know you are losing too much), because deep inside we all know whats right or wrong, the difference between people is whether you hear that voice, or you shut it with a nicer version. 90% of people in forex (not real statistics, the real number varies from broker hmmm brokers another shady topic), prefers the nice version long term, which results not profitable basically.
It's your version (you + all gurus you've seen) not the version the market shows and the deep-you tries to alert.
I headed far from an important topic: gurus telling to trust them, a killer market killing you, lots of misinformation around the WWW and you not believing in yourself. What else do you have to face the markets?
You are in a triangle: broker (not so hard to get a nice one), market and yourself. Everything else is a lie until the person who is in any way selling you stuff, shows you his profitable record of more than 6 months in any financial instrument, that you look at yourself in the mirror and you can say I trust him, not I want to trust him (even if it's some of each, but hey everything involves risk).
LOOK AT THE CHARTS.
Want to have "fast money" (intraday), look M1 to M30, even H1 for a bird's view, optimize your profitable and consistent demo results to that market; want to look charts once a day, trade D1, I'd say you don't even have to look at something bigger as it is big enough and you can go to H4 or H1 for finesse entries (can become a vicious circle, how much finesse is finesse?).
It's all about trust, confidence and a good plan.
Psychology of yourself is so vast, and so unique to each person that I would dare to say that if you are looking for the answer outside of you, you better befriend a trader who is today making money and pray that he literally gifts you his confidence (not his knowledge even if it can help, hi will be sharing his confidence). Your social mind will spawn the hype, the euphoria, you will succeed for a while, market will kill you sooner or later, you will help the market to kill your account. Why? Because your confidence wasn't real, it may be that that day, that week the market moved nicely, or you felt strong and super.
How many gurus go live and say "hey today, as a human being, I don't feel great, I would not trade today?" none. They say market is not right ATM, cherry picking, they totally exploit that you can't go inside their screens and really know them, here comes the version you want to believe, you will tell yourself anything, you will tell anyone anything.
Here to finish, I'll say that consistency in anything in life starts from yourself. If you can't be consistent everyday with yourself for a long period of time, you will find temporary jobs, temporary stuff, you will keep jumping from gurus, from strategies, you will create better versions on your head, just imagine what version a guru must have created to go and sell forex related stuff instead of searching for how to kill the markets, he may be doing both, in the end none of that will give you anything, you will end up being the stair to the gurus goals. Try to comprehend how human we are, how arrogant we are from a farmers perspective, how or evolution results in our minds plays us tricks, to think the government is real, to think there's order, justice, to think that we can achieve huge things with the help of YouTube videos or paying another human being, the market is flow, manipulation is real (why call it manipulation when you would be doing the same in their shoes(big boys)) is part of the nature of anything you plot with Y and X axis (look for a graph of population changes, harmonics, double bottoms, double tops, in a population changes graph? how can that be?), it may be a cliche but is aaaaaaall an illusion guys, the truth is not good business for the other side of the trades.
See you on the other side.
"I'll be a big noise with all the big boys"
submitted by ab_moncada to Forex [link] [comments]

1broker copy guide - avoiding extreme losses

First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money.
https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking.
Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade.
Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky.
Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes.
1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades.
Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars.
And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success.
Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts)
Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again.
When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading.
1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this.
So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading.
Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.

My opinion on several traders

vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days)
gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change.
vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain.
Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away.
noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades.
Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now.
1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling.
knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record.
HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80%
boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record.
sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much.
Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you.
eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary.
3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range.
SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%.
SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while.
CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading.
kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment.
google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades
KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago.
SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more.
APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%.
dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains.
Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
  1. Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
  2. Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive.
Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
submitted by FCatarina to 1Broker [link] [comments]

Market report 1/25/18: JPY, MXN

Yesterday was a good day to short the USD. I had issues with my trade execution I need to correct, but I've got some decent positions backed by break-even SLs that I'm hoping will bear fruit going forward. The big thing I learned was the power of waiting for news. During news it's important to make bigger plays rather than small ones. For some reason, I had that backwards! :-P
I'm still short USD, but I'm not convinced it's time to double-down yet. I'm expecting at least some consolidation before having to make a decision. I don't want to ruin my positions by adding now only to be stopped out because price reached the average of my two entries.
Today there was some negative news out of Mexico. Minor reports, but sales data is down. I'm expecting Mexico to fall off given the reports of crime coming out of there. No one I know here in the US wants to vacation there. That has to hurt their bottom line, so I'm long USDMXN for a very small play against the recent low 18.3 established 6am PST. If my broker offered anything other than USD against MXN I would take it. I tried to short USDMXN before and got burned, so like I say, very minor play here, especially considering the negative carry trade.
3:30pm PST today is the JPY announcement. No change in interest rates or core CPI are forecast. YoY inflation is projected higher, but MoM is lower. Overall it appears to be a non-event, other than it could perhaps project USDJPY lower.
I of course had a USDJPY position yesterday, but I got stopped out. Later in the day I took a contrarian position to one of our forum members and went short NZDJPY. It was an accident, on reflection AUDNZD was probably a better play. But now I have short NZDJPY and am also in a long EURJPY from before. I'm confident in my SL in both of these and don't anticipate the BoJ announcement is going to have an affect on these trades.
Instead what I'd like to do is watch closely how USDJPY reacts to the announcement. Whichever way it goes that's how I'm going to play it, with a SL above or below the 4-hour candle (since the announcement is at the start of a new daily).
submitted by Radrezzz to Forex [link] [comments]

Ataraxia 7 Review | Don’t Download Ataraxia 7 Software Without Bonus !!

Ataraxia 7 Review | Don’t Download Ataraxia 7 Software Without Bonus !!
Read this Comprehensive Joseph Belkin, Ataraxia 7 System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download Ataraxia 7 Software...
Product Name : Ataraxia 7
Author : Joseph Belkin,
Cost : Free
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What is Ataraxia 7 ?
Ataraxia 7 is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. Ataraxia 7 is free trading software.
The best part of Ataraxia 7 is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Ataraxia 7 Review
The Ataraxia 7 truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The Ataraxia 7 is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The Ataraxia 7?
The Ataraxia 7 is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use Ataraxia 7?
The user can benefit from using Ataraxia 7 because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use Ataraxia 7?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial. It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wallstreet. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like Ataraxia 7 can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!!
Yes, the Ataraxia 7 software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your Ataraxia 7 with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the Ataraxia 7 software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros: Ataraxia 7 Review
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The Ataraxia 7 software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The Ataraxia 7 is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons: Ataraxia 7
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line: Ataraxia 7 Review
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of Ataraxia 7 software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose,the access to Ataraxia 7 is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
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submitted by iasminn to atarraxia [link] [comments]

100%Profitbot Review | Don’t Download 100%Profitbot Software Without Bonus !!

100%Profitbot Review | Don’t Download 100%Profitbot Software Without Bonus !!
Read this Comprehensive SportsMavin’s 100%Profitbot System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download 100%Profitbot Software...
Product Name : 100% Profit Bot
Author : SportsMavin
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : 100%Profitbot
What is 100%Profit Bot ?
100%Profit Bot is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. 100%Profit Bot is free trading software.
The best part of 100%Profit Bot is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
100% Profit Bot Review
The 100% Profit Bot truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The 100% Profit Bot is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The 100% Profit Bot?
The 100% Profit Bot is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use 100% Profit Bot?
The user can benefit from using 100% Profit Bot because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use 100% Profit Bot?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial.
It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wallstreet. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like 100% Profit Bot can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!! ]
Yes, the 100% Profit Bot software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your 100% Profit Bot with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the 100% Profit Bot software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros:
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The 100% Profit Bot software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The 100% Profit Bot is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons:
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line:
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of 100% Profit Bot software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose,the access to 100% Profit Bot is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
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submitted by profittbot to profittbot [link] [comments]

Profit Genius Review - Does Profit Genius Works?

Profit Genius Review
Profit Genius is a latest binary options trading software out there in the market. I have already got my copy and today I will write Profit Genius review and what I get inside. So read my honest Profit Genius review and know what Profit Genius all about.
Profit Genius Review - What is Profit Genius?
Profit Genius is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. Profit Genius is free trading software.
The best part of Profit Genius is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Is Profit Genius Legit?
To utilize Profit Genius, you must open a trading record with a binary options broker. Profit Genius is an free software that is continuously dispatched now, in mid-2014, and until it makes its database of customers, this monetary tool is accessible free of charge. It is exceptionally doubtful that this circumstance will stay as and accordingly it is firmly proposed to sign-in now, and profit from this preference while there is no charge.
The way that Profit Genius is not specifically dependent on any specific binary broker gives it a huge advantage, because the Profit Genius designers pick which organizations can utilize its innovation. For this reason they have set elevated expectations for any facilitate that wishes to offer this magnificent profit to its traders.
Binary options trading scams exist, and the Navigator programming makes sure to distance itself of such rumors, by permitting clients to pick just between a select groups of trustworthy brokers. The best affirmation that Profit Genius is a legit device that is just adjusts to the stages of expert and authorized binary options broker.
Profit Genius Review - Why Use Profit Genius?
Profit Genius is another, computerized trading administration that shows to traders the best expectations for their investment. It has a few points of interest, highlighted by the accompanying:
This product can transform your trading knowledge into a speedier, more beneficial, more secure and controlled experience. The initial move towards utilizing this brilliant tool is registration process. This is an exceptionally enrollment procedure, the Profit Genius will propose a binary options representative through which you can execute traders.
Every month or so, a new broker tops the suggestion list. Obviously, without a trading record, you can't trade. Along these lines a piece of the enrollment will take you through opening a record and making your first deposit.
Profit Genius Review - Trading with Profit Genius
Trading binary options with Profit Genius is simple because it permits you to follow the software even if you have very little or no experience in trading.
You just have to follow these to make profit:
Inside minutes, the trade expires and the results are characterized. Binary options can either expire in-the-cash or out-of-the-cash. If you can accomplish a bigger measure of right forecasts, you can revel in huge benefits.
The Profit Genius is to a great degree simple to utilize, because it is incorporated with your trading stage, and in this manner all it requires from you is to pick your trades. The product makes an indicator by highlighting every present potential trade with either the Green color (signals that it is prescribing a "Call" alternative) or in Red (a signal to choose a “Put” binary option).
Bottom Line:
By emulating these trading indicators, traders can expand generously their benefit levels. Since binary options payouts are amazingly high, even a slight change can decipher into huge measures of cash. When you figure out how to utilize the Profit Genius reliably, you can generate an additional monthly income. So, what are you waiting for? Go and get your copy now and start making money.
Profit Genius Review
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Quick Cash System | Don’t Download Quick Cash System Software Without Bonus !!

Quick Cash System | Don’t Download Quick Cash System Software Without Bonus !! Read this Comprehensive Quick Cash System System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download Quick Cash System Software...
Product Name : Quick Cash System
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : Quickcashsystem
What is Quick Cash System ?
Quick Cash System is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. Quick Cash System is free trading software.
The best part of Quick Cash System is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
Quick Cash System
The Quick Cash System truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The Quick Cash System is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The Quick Cash System?
The Quick Cash System is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use Quick Cash System?
The user can benefit from using Quick Cash System because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
I Have Never Heard Of Binary Options… Can I Still Use Quick Cash System?
Trading with binary options can be rather difficult and this is why having a knowledgeable trading and market developed software at your finger tips when trading is so beneficial.
It is like having your own stockbroker by your computer’s side helping you with every trade.
I Still Don’t Understand What Binary Options Are?
Trading with binary options is similar to trading on the stock market but doesn’t require such a large start up invest which is why they have become so popular.
When trading with binary options you are trading within currencies rather than shares like in wall street. For example you would trade with USD and would trade to EUR if the trade would be profitable for you. Trading with binary options is confusing and many factors have to be taken into account when trading. Having a software like Quick Cash System can really show the way to trading and will look out for you to make sure that you are only making the most profitable trades.
The Software if Free? Really?!!
Yes, the Quick Cash System software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your Quick Cash System with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the Quick Cash System software to show which trades are the more profitable.
Pros:
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The Quick Cash System software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The Quick Cash System is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
Cons:
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
Bottom Line:
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of Quick Cash System software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
You have nothing to lose, the access to Quick Cash System is complete FREE! Click the download button to get your Free copy.
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100%Profitbot Review | Thinking Of Buying ? Don't !!

100%Profitbot Review -
Read this Comprehensive SportsMavin’s 100%Profitbot System Review before you make any mistake and spend your hard earned in vain. Free Download 100%Profitbot Software...
Product Name : 100% Profit Bot
Author : SportsMavin
Cost : Free
Bonus offer : up to ($500)
SPECIAL BONUS URL : 100%Profitbot Official
What is 100%Profit Bot ?
100%Profit Bot is an auxiliary trading tool,, known as a mechanized trading robot, or most generally, a "bot". This is a product that breaks down information from stock market and improves the trading knowledge for double options traders. 100%Profit Bot is free trading software.
The best part of 100%Profit Bot is that it expands the exactness level of your expectations and allows you to trade more volume with a higher achievement rate.
100% Profit Bot Review
The 100% Profit Bot truly is automatic. Most other programs still require you to do some sort of something to keep it going, but this one doesn’t. All you have to do is leave your computer on and it does the rest. It analyzes the markets and only makes trades when the probabilities are in your favour and makes it so you don’t need to know anything about forex trading. There are many features of this software like being able to set how much to trade, how long to trade, setting a stop loss, interest rate, and autopilot. It has everything you would need and possibly more.
The 100% Profit Bot is very easy to use and completely automates the binary trading experience. The software is simple enough to navigate that even novice users will be able to make it work for them. The software itself is being offered for free but only on a limited basis. Once you set up your account, you deposit the money you will be using to trade with and the app itself will automatically make the trades that fit into its criteria to generate maximum profits.
What Exactly Is The 100% Profit Bot?
The 100% Profit Bot is a software that can help earn a steady income online with binary options. The software was created to help create a simple and effective method to trade online with binary options.
How Can I Use 100% Profit Bot?
The user can benefit from using 100% Profit Bot because the software is constantly checking the market for ups and downs. Once the software has sifted through all the market moves it will then give you detailed input report on how you should invest within binary options.
The only thing the user must do is see where the software is suggesting where they will make profitable returns on their investment and then watch the profitable trades come in.
The Software if Free? Really?!!
Yes, the 100% Profit Bot software is 100% free. I know this may sound much too good to be true but the software is in fact free.
The only time payment is involved is when you set up your 100% Profit Bot with the trading broker they set you up with and then you much deposit funds into your account to begin trading. This cost is normally $200-250.00 depending on the broker.
So yes, the software is free but in order to make any money using it you have to deposit funds into your account. Once this has been completed then you can immediately begin trading and using the 100% Profit Bot software to show which trades are the more profitable.
100%Profitbot Review - Pros:
• One of the best things about the software is that it allows a user to learn about the basics of trading, especially if you are new to it. You will find out the best ways to go about the trading procedure, allowing you to make huge profits even at the comfort of your own home.
• Since this is the , it is fully upgraded with improved trading algorithms. As a result, the trading process is much more convenient, letting you get the best of what the software has to offer. If you have any queries, you need not worry because they have customer support through phone and live chat.
• The initial The 100% Profit Bot software can only be used on Windows, but the version can now be used on other operating systems such as Mac, Linux, and even on your tablets and smart phones. Now, you don’t have to confine yourself in front of your computer to make the perfect trade –– you can now make a significant amount of profit even with your tablet or phone anytime you wish.
• You won’t need to make any complicated analyses of the market when you have the software . You just have to follow the instructions provided, apply what you have learned, and place your trades. Because The 100% Profit Bot is pretty straightforward, you will gradually gain the confidence that you’ll need in order to maximize trades in the binary options market.
• Online safety is not a problem with the program because their secure online payment form is powered and tested by the latest programs such as Norton Secured and McAfee Secure.
100%Profitbot Review -Cons:
• Since the trading market is always volatile and changing, you need to be quick while taking any financial decisions. At times, you may experience some delays in live feeds on your screen. However, if you have a high speed Internet connection, you won’t experience any problems. It is still important to understand that there’s no guarantee to earn or lose money because of the volatile nature of the trading market.
100%Profitbot Review -Bottom Line:
The software is very easy to use and there is you have to install to get started. The software works in every part of the world. Using this software puts you one step ahead of other traders plus you don’t need to be an expert or analyst to use this software or understand the charts/trends of the market to make money.
Some people think trading in binary market is a very risk thing and a way to loose big chunk of money. Well it’s true that you can loose money if you don’t have any strategy or proper trading ideas. But this software fixes this thing for you and you no longer have to worry about loosing your money.
The software prediction is accurate most of the time and you will definitely be in profit if you take the action at the right time as suggested by the software. There are many more feature of 100% Profit Bot software like setting how much to trade, how longer to trade, setting it on autopilot, setting a stop loss, setting your interest etc. The software is complete and works flawlessly.
submitted by niluque to niluque [link] [comments]

FOREX - Double Tops and Bottoms Checklist  Phro Lombardi Forex 🔥🔥🔥Double Bottom Pattern 👌🏿👌🏿 - YouTube HOW TO PROPERLY TRADE THE DOUBLE TOP IN FOREX, CRYPTO OR ... [90% win] How to Trade Double Tops  double bottom pattern ... How To Identify and Trade Double Bottoms and Double Tops ... 1 Hour Forex Trading Double Tops And Double Bottoms ... Forex: Trading a Double Bottom Bullish Reversal Price Action: iq option live trading, double bottom breakdown, double top breakout forex 2018 Forex Market Reversal Patterns - Double Top and Double Bottom

gann. Il pattern Double bottom è una figura Forex che aiuta i trader ad operare in questo settore in maniera veloce ed efficiente.Nel double bottom ci sono sostanzialmente due punti di minimo consecutivi che sono presi in considerazione per esaminare la posizione della valuta all’interno del nostro mercato di riferimento. The double bottom market pattern is similar to a double top pattern, the double bottom has bottoms instead of tops. Reading this article will help you understand much better how to identify and trade the double bottom pattern in forex trading. How to spot a double bottom pattern. The example below shows a double bottom chart pattern. As you can ... A double bottom may be in play but is not confirmed until price action breaks above 1.342 resistance. The preference is for a rebound higher towards 1.365. A large trend reversal may be in the works. Source: GAIN Capital, TradingView TAGS: CAD Forex FX USD. Share: More from Forex, Disclaimer: The information on this web site is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It ... The Double Bottom Forex Swing Trading Strategy provides an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Based on this information, traders can assume further price movement and adjust this strategy accordingly. Recommended Forex Metatrader 4 Trading Platform. Free $30 To Start Trading Instantly; Deposit Bonus up to $5,000 ... double bottom price action structure In a downtrend, price action finds first resistance 1 , where it reverses direction and goes upwards till finding support 2 . Price action reverses direction from 2 and goes downwards till finding second resistance 3 , which will be -around- the same rate of the first resistance 1 . Partner Center Find a Broker. When a double top or double bottom chart pattern appears, a trend reversal has begun. Let’s learn how to identify these chart patterns and trade them. Double Top. A double top is a reversal pattern that is formed after there is an extended move up. The “tops” are peaks which are formed when the price hits a certain level that can’t be broken. After hitting ... This is a great piece of information. I was completely unaware of it. I had no Cara Trading Binary Dengan Pola Double Bottom, Broker Forex Indonesia idea about the differences between forex trading and binary options trading. I must say that this is a great article. I had only known about Cara Trading Binary Dengan Pola Double Bottom, Broker Forex Indonesia binary options trading until now. The double bottom pattern is one of my favorite technical patterns to spot a potential reversal in the Forex market. The double bottom forms after an extended move down and can be used to find buying opportunities on the way up. As the name implies, the double bottom pattern consists of two bottoms that form at a key support level. Double Top and Double Bottom in RSI Strategy. Sixty First session of Forex Training. Welcome back to Forex professional training in financial markets. In this session Double Top & Double Bottom in RSI Strategy will be studied. Double Top and Double Bottom in RSI Oscillator. RSI value can be set on 14, while 2 levels are adjusted on 30 and 70. Open a free demo or live account with a featured forex broker. More: AutoTrading: Copy the trades of expert traders automatically on your own account. More: Double Bottom. The Double Bottom Reversal is a bullish chart pattern that indicates a probable upward trend. Visual Pattern. The pattern consists of two troughs following each other, with a peak inbetween them that shoudn't be very high ...

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FOREX - Double Tops and Bottoms Checklist Phro Lombardi

No chart pattern trading setups are more common in trading than the double bottom or double top. Forex double tops and forex double bottoms are two well-know... Learn to trade for free - https://www.decisivetrading.info/decisivepackage Start off with our free Introduction to Trading course - https://www.decisivetradi... http://tradingwithvenus.com In this week's video, I share with you my Go-To trade setup. This is one of my most effective and profitable chart patterns - Dou... HOW TO PROPERLY TRADE THE DOUBLE TOP IN FOREX, CRYPTO OR STOCKS Get my best selling E-book here https://bit.ly/2U6GdlL What Broker Do I recommend? https://bi... How to Trade Double Tops double bottom pattern trading Double Top Definition The double top is a chart pattern with two swing highs very close in price. Th... FOREX - Double Tops and Double Bottoms Checklist Phro Lombardi It's good to keep a checklist for confirming patterns. Here is my personal checklist for double tops and double bottoms. Enjoy! Episode 180: How to Trade Double Bottom - Reversal Chart Pattern - Trading Strategy - Duration: 4:46. Trading with Venus 530 views Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Double Bottom Breakdown - The most basic P&F sell signal is a Double Bottom Breakdown, which occurs when an O-Column breaks below the low of the prior O-Column. From this basic pattern, the ...

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